New for the 2025/26 campaign, our LaLiga season predictions and projections will offer insight into the bigger picture, and how we see the key battles taking shape.
Below, you can check our LaLiga table predictions which will be updated periodically throughout the 2025/26 season. There are also data-based projections of expected finishing positions and final points tallies which will be updated throughout the season, while we’ll still have LaLiga match predictions for every game.
LaLiga projected final positions & points totals
| POSITION | CLUB | POINTS |
| 1 | Barcelona | 92 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 88 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 73 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 57 |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 53 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 52 |
| 8 | Getafe | 50 |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 50 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 48 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 47 |
| 12 | Valencia | 45 |
| 13 | Girona | 45 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 45 |
| 15 | Sevilla | 41 |
| 16 | Alaves | 41 |
| 17 | Elche | 39 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 39 |
| 19 | Levante | 35 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 30 |
The above table shows the projected finishing positions and projected points tallies for all 20 clubs in LaLiga, based on available predictions market data as of 25/2/2026, prior to matchday 30.
You can get more details on each of the 20 clubs in our LaLiga season preview, which includes all the key summer transfers, and the expected strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Outright winner probabilities
| CLUB | WIN PROBABILITY |
| Barcelona | 77% |
| Real Madrid | 23% |
These LaLiga outright winner probabilities are based on market data as of 30/3/2026. Cubs have all played 29 matches by this point. These figures will be updated again soon.
LaLiga table predictions 2025/26 – Our pre-season view
This is how we saw the key battles in LaLiga taking shape, based on everything we knew as of August 12th 2025, three days before the big kick-off.
Who will win LaLiga 2025/26? – Real Madrid
The Spanish title race is almost a toss of a coin according to the pre-season LaLiga outright winner probabilities outlined below, and you really can make a strong case for either Real Madrid or Barcelona, with the latter currently the very slight favourites.
However, not since Barca’s 2018/19 triumph under Ernesto Valverde has a team successfully defended a league title in Spain. Hansi Flick’s title holders were certainly worthy winners last term when they were much better than Real Madrid in truth, and if they can find that level on a consistent basis again, they will take some stopping.
While there are some fundamental issues that need addressing by new Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso, most notably figuring out how to get both Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe firing up front, it seems safe to assume that Los Blancos will be better this term, not least following an active summer that has seen €167m spent on new signings.
We’re backing them to edge a tight title race, with Barcelona still having one or two weak points in their squad, particularly in defence where there is limited depth at full-back, and where they’ve been hit by the sudden departure of centre-back Iñigo Martinez, who was so impressive last season, to Al-Nassr.
Top four – Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid look to have had another strong window which has seen them add quality to their squad, with the addition of Alex Baena a major coup. With Thiago Almada also on board, they should be able to manage reasonably well with what is starting to feel like the decline of Antoine Griezmann, and it’s hard to see them finishing any lower than third place.
While five places were rewarded with Champions League qualification last term, the other big players in LaLiga will be eyeing up fourth as the only guaranteed route into Europe’s top competition. With Valencia and Sevilla not the forces they once were, and Real Sociedad in a somewhat transitional period, Athletic Club, Villarreal and Real Betis stand out as the main candidates for Spain’s fourth Champions League place.
Athletic have actually endured a pretty miserable pre-season, but we probably shouldn’t read too much into that. Having secured the services of Nico Williams for at least another year, and with what was LaLiga’s best defence last term providing solid foundations, they look capable of having the edge on Villarreal who will certainly miss Baena, as well as Betis who have already been dealt a huge blow with talisman Isco ruled out until November with a fractured tibia.
Relegated – Sevilla, Alaves, Real Oviedo
We’re in an era when the newly promoted teams always start out as among the relegation favourites. That’s certainly no exception this season, with the three new arrivals all looking a little bit light in terms of top-flight quality as we approach the big kick-off, although there is still time for them to address that issue in the transfer market.
While Levante and Elche feel a bit more stable with clearer playing styles under the guidance of coaches who have been in their positions for more than a year, Real Oviedo have a bit more catching up to do having only won promotion via the play-offs at the end of June. They’ll benefit from passionate support at the Carlos Tartiere, and on the road, on their long-awaited return to this level, but right now it’s hard to see Veljko Paunovic keeping the Asturians in the league.
The good news for the other promoted teams is that there are at least two other clubs that don’t look in particularly good shape heading into August. One of those is Alaves who have lost a couple of important defenders, as well as their main goal threat Kike Garcia who has joined potential relegation rivals Espanyol. Mariano Diaz has arrived to potentially fill that void, although after a year as a free agent, and more than three years without a goal, it’s hard to see the 32-year-old being their saviour.
We also worry for Sevilla. While it still feels like a pretty bold call to include them in our LaLiga relegation prediction, the Andalusians only finished one point and one place above the bottom three last term, so it really isn’t all that wild to think they could slip down to the second tier, with no end in sight for their significant off-field problems. They’ve relied on loans and free transfers this summer, with little activity that’s likely to lift the gloom that has set in at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan. It’s currently hard to see Matias Almeyda, one of seven new faces in LaLiga dugouts this August, lasting the course given he is their eighth coach in the space of less than three years (including Joaquín Caparros’ caretaker stint at the end of last season).