LaLiga key battles – How are things shaping up with 10 games to go?

what's at stake in la liga

LaLiga is heating up with just 10 matchdays to go following the latest round of games which saw all of the top three win but served up a big upset as struggling Cadiz ended a long winless run to defeat Atletico Madrid.

We’ve used the best available odds from 1xbet in India and others to highlight the current state of play in all of the key battles in LaLiga. All teams have now played 28 games with the exception of Valencia and Granada who have a game in hand on the rest with the pair set to meet in a rescheduled fixture in early April.

Real Madrid in control of the title race

ClubPointsTitle Odds
1stReal Madrid691/25
2ndGirona6248/1
3rdBarcelona6120/1

Atletico’s weekend defeat leaves them 14 points off the top so there are surely only three possible candidates to win the title. Leaders Real Madrid are by far the most likely with a seven point advantage on 2nd placed Girona and an implied probability of 96% that they win the title from this position.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side took a big stride towards that goal when they cruised past Girona 4-0 last month and any talk of a minor wobble was crushed by another dominant 4-0 win over Celta on Sunday. Los Blancos have only lost once all season in LaLiga and they also have a pretty favourable run-in which makes it hard to see any other outcome but them winning the title this season.

La Liga key battles
Jude Bellingham leads the race for the Pichichi – Photo credit: depositphotos.com

With three defeats in five, the wheels haven’t exactly come off for Girona but reality has bitten to a large extent and they were always going to struggle to keep pace with Real Madrid over 38 games. That should take nothing away from the brilliant work that has been done by Michel and his team this season and they remain firmly on course to qualify for the Champions League which would still be a wonderful achievement.

Barcelona would reach 91 points if they were to win all of their remaining games which would be three more than they picked up during their 2022/23 title winning season. That would certainly be sufficient to make Real Madrid really have to fight to get over the line, however it looks unlikely for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the Catalan giants have struggled for any kind of consistency when it comes to both performances and results. Secondly, Barca are dealing with a host of injuries right now with midfield mainstays Pedri, Frenkie de Jong and Gavi all out. They also have a really tough run-in with trips to the two big Madrid clubs and Girona to come within the space of their next six games.

Atleti and Athletic in a two-way battle for 4th?

ClubPointsTop Four Odds
4thAtletico Madrid554/9
5thAthletic Club535/2
6thReal Sociedad43150/1
7thReal Betis42
8thValencia40*
*Valencia have a game in hand on the rest.

Barring a total collapse from Girona or Barcelona, the race for 4th place looks to boil down to Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club. With Spanish clubs not performing particularly well in Europe this term, there is little prospect of 5th being good enough for a Champions League place with new rules offering two extra places to the best performing nations in the revamped competition.

That means Atleti and Athletic are set to battle it out for one place in the Champions League and the opportunities and riches that brings. Athletic Club were convincing 4-0 aggregate winners when the clubs met in the Copa del Rey Semi-Finals last month but it’s Atletico Madrid who currently have a two point advantage in LaLiga.

what's at stake in la liga
Atletico are the only team to have defeated Real Madrid this season. Photo credit: depositphotos.com

Their away form is a huge concern though with Diego Simeone’s side suffering a seventh away league defeat of the season at Cadiz on Sunday. Athletic have also been much stronger at home than away and much may depend on the outcome of the meeting between the two sides on matchday 33 in Madrid at the end of April.

Real Sociedad, Real Betis and Valencia look set to battle it out for the final European place or places with all three sure to be cheering on Athletic when they take on Mallorca in the Copa del Rey Final next month. Should the Basque club win and go on to finish in the top six (which looks highly probable given their current position), an extra Europa League place would go to the league positions and 7th would be good enough for Conference League qualification.

Cadiz win at last to breathe life into the relegation scrap

ClubPointsRelegation Odds
13thAlaves3250/1
14thSevilla2840/1
15thMallorca2711/1
16thRayo Vallecano2611/1
17thCelta Vigo246/1
18thCadiz222/9
19thGranada*141/100
20thAlmeria10
*Granada have a game in hand on the other teams.

While they may not be quite as bad as the league table suggests, it’s looking incredibly bleak for the bottom two of Almeria and Granada who will surely both be playing Segunda Division football again next season.

However, Cadiz’s first league win in more than six months makes the race to avoid the third relegation place look a bit more interesting than it did previously. The Andalusians are now unbeaten in three games and looking a bit more convincing under the recently appointed Mauricio Pellegrino, although they remain the clear favourites to go down with Granada and Almeria.

There’ll be a few edgy teams just above them though. Celta Vigo haven’t found any real consistency at any point this season under Rafa Benitez and they may live to regret wasting a two goal advantage at the Nuevo Mirandilla a fortnight ago.

Rayo Vallecano are winless in nine league games and there has been no response to the decision to replace Francisco with Iñigo Perez with the young coach taking charge of the last four.

Meanwhile Mallorca and Sevilla are only marginally better off than Rayo in terms of points, although both have started to pick up a few results in recent weeks to suggest they should both be okay. 

LaLiga heads into matchday 29 this coming weekend before pausing for the international break. We’ll very much be into the home straight when the Spanish top flight returns at the end of this month as the race for the title, European places and survival continues to take shape.

Daniel Garcia
About Daniel Garcia 298 Articles
Daniel is a football writer based in Spain. He has an extensive knowledge of LaLiga history and closely follows current events in the Spanish top flight.